Once May rolls around, low rates beckon at resorts in the Caribbean and on Mexico's Caribbean coast (Cancun and the Riviera Maya). Yet every few years, one of these popular spots is pummeled by a tropical storm. Florida, too, is vulnerable on the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, and in the Keys to the south. Even tourist powerhouse Orlando -- in the middle of the state-- gets an occasional blast. (See more about the Florida hurricane season.)
Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30, but as the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) notes:
"There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity."
When Is the Hurricane Season Most Active?
Again according to the AOML, there's a "very peaked season from August to October," which means this period includes:
•78% of the tropical storm days
•87% of the "minor" hurricane days, and
•96% of the "major" hurricane days
And within this peak hurricane season, early to mid-September is the pinnacle.
Of course Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars, and every once in a while a tropical cyclone hits out of season -- usually in May or December-- or late in the season: Hurricane Wilma, for instance, battered Cancun and the Riviera Maya on October 21 and 22 2005.
-- Wilma was a reminder that October can be risky. (See a graphic of October Caribbean hurricanes over many decades; see also month by month statistics for hurricanes in the Caribbean.)
Even if a hurricane doesn't officially make landfall, its effects can be drastic. Hurricane-force winds can extend 90 miles out from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds might reach 200 miles. (Even "squalls," or heavy thunderstorms, can extend several hundred miles.) Another point: "landfall" only officially occurs when the center of the eye of the storm contacts land. The strongest winds, however, are at the "eye-wall" around the edge of the eye, and this might hit land even if the center does not. (See more about area of hurricane impact.)
Hurricane Season in the Caribbean: Different Areas
Some islands are less prone to violent storms than others, and holiday-goers can try to pick spots strategically. The Dutch Caribbean "ABC" islands -- Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao-- are clustered close to Venezuela, and considered to be out of the main hurricane zone. Trinidad and Tobago, too, are south of the hurricane belt and rarely get hit.
Also, some say that the eastern Caribbean and US East Coast are most at risk from mid-August to mid-September, while in the western Caribbean (which includes Mexico and Belize), the season intensifies from mid-September into early November. Disregarding this conventional wisdom, Jamaica, in the western Caribbean, has mainly been hit during late August and early September...
Unfortunately, Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars or maps.
Forecasts for 2011 Hurricane Season
Still, every year hurricane specialists give their best shots at forecasts for the hurricane season. For example, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has ongoing Tropical Storm Forecasts. Their extended range forecast for 2011 is as follows:
"We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Our seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."
This forecast is dated April 6 2011; check the site for updates.
How To Protect Your Vacation in Hurricane Season
While the likelihood of a direct hit to your beach resort is small, even if your holiday isn't actually in the path of a major storm, weather patterns are disrupted in a wide radius. Some days may be spoiled by rain and wind if you're in an affected area.
Despite the weather risks, hurricane season is a tempting time to travel because it spans the top two months when kids are out of school. Also -- and not surprisingly!-- very tempting discounts are offered at Caribbean resorts during the hurricane season months.
Published by By Teresa Plowright from About.com
Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30, but as the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) notes:
"There is nothing magical in these dates, and hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity."
When Is the Hurricane Season Most Active?
Again according to the AOML, there's a "very peaked season from August to October," which means this period includes:
•78% of the tropical storm days
•87% of the "minor" hurricane days, and
•96% of the "major" hurricane days
And within this peak hurricane season, early to mid-September is the pinnacle.
Of course Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars, and every once in a while a tropical cyclone hits out of season -- usually in May or December-- or late in the season: Hurricane Wilma, for instance, battered Cancun and the Riviera Maya on October 21 and 22 2005.
-- Wilma was a reminder that October can be risky. (See a graphic of October Caribbean hurricanes over many decades; see also month by month statistics for hurricanes in the Caribbean.)
Even if a hurricane doesn't officially make landfall, its effects can be drastic. Hurricane-force winds can extend 90 miles out from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds might reach 200 miles. (Even "squalls," or heavy thunderstorms, can extend several hundred miles.) Another point: "landfall" only officially occurs when the center of the eye of the storm contacts land. The strongest winds, however, are at the "eye-wall" around the edge of the eye, and this might hit land even if the center does not. (See more about area of hurricane impact.)
Hurricane Season in the Caribbean: Different Areas
Some islands are less prone to violent storms than others, and holiday-goers can try to pick spots strategically. The Dutch Caribbean "ABC" islands -- Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao-- are clustered close to Venezuela, and considered to be out of the main hurricane zone. Trinidad and Tobago, too, are south of the hurricane belt and rarely get hit.
Also, some say that the eastern Caribbean and US East Coast are most at risk from mid-August to mid-September, while in the western Caribbean (which includes Mexico and Belize), the season intensifies from mid-September into early November. Disregarding this conventional wisdom, Jamaica, in the western Caribbean, has mainly been hit during late August and early September...
Unfortunately, Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars or maps.
Forecasts for 2011 Hurricane Season
Still, every year hurricane specialists give their best shots at forecasts for the hurricane season. For example, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has ongoing Tropical Storm Forecasts. Their extended range forecast for 2011 is as follows:
"We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Our seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."
This forecast is dated April 6 2011; check the site for updates.
How To Protect Your Vacation in Hurricane Season
While the likelihood of a direct hit to your beach resort is small, even if your holiday isn't actually in the path of a major storm, weather patterns are disrupted in a wide radius. Some days may be spoiled by rain and wind if you're in an affected area.
Despite the weather risks, hurricane season is a tempting time to travel because it spans the top two months when kids are out of school. Also -- and not surprisingly!-- very tempting discounts are offered at Caribbean resorts during the hurricane season months.
Published by By Teresa Plowright from About.com
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